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Prompt

Smart Money Analysis Prompt

Tests whether a group of 'smart money' wallets is genuinely informative or a survivorship-biased label.

2 min readupdated 2026-09-02

/ quick answer

Use before building a watchlist or copying any wallet cohort. Tests whether a group of 'smart money' wallets is genuinely informative or a survivorship-biased label.

Tests whether a group of 'smart money' wallets is genuinely informative or a survivorship-biased label. Use before building a watchlist or copying any wallet cohort. Copy the prompt below, swap the bracketed variables for your own context, and run it in any capable model. This prompt node is part of the Onexial knowledge graph and links to related concepts, workflows and tools below.
Context
Use before building a watchlist or copying any wallet cohort.
Prompt
Evaluate whether this set of wallets is genuinely informative. Assume the "smart money" label is unproven.

WALLETS (address, claimed PnL, period, position count, notable trades):
[LIST]

Assess:
1. For each wallet: is performance broad-based or concentrated in one or two positions? Show the concentration.
2. Survivorship and selection bias in how these wallets were identified.
3. Signs of non-replicable edge: insider timing, wash activity, MEV, launch access.
4. Whether their entries were realistically copyable at the time (liquidity, timing, gas).
5. Which wallets, if any, deserve monitoring — and the filters to apply.
6. What would falsify the "informative" conclusion within 60 days.

Be sceptical by default. Do not recommend copying without filters.
Example Output
Wallet A: 84% of PnL from one position — not evidence of skill. Wallet C: profitable across 27 positions and two market phases; broad-based. Selection bias: all wallets were chosen from a post-hoc profit leaderboard, so failures are invisible. Non-replicable edge: Wallet B bought within 40 seconds of pool creation twice — likely launch access. Monitor: C only, filtered to buys over $20k in pools over $2M. Falsified if C's next 10 tracked entries underperform a majors benchmark.
Related Workflow
Related Tool Stacks
/ frequently asked

What does the Smart Money Analysis Prompt prompt do?

Use before building a watchlist or copying any wallet cohort.

Which AI models work with this prompt?

It is model-agnostic: it works with any capable general model. Replace the bracketed variables with your own context before running it.

What output should I expect?

Wallet A: 84% of PnL from one position — not evidence of skill. Wallet C: profitable across 27 positions and two market phases; broad-based. Selection bias: all wallets were chosen from a post-hoc profit leaderboard, so failures are invisible. Non-replicable edge: Wallet B bought within 40 seconds o.

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Related concepts

The vocabulary this page depends on.

  • Smart Money

    Smart money is a label for wallets with a documented history of profitable, early positioning — a research filter, not a signal to copy blindly.

  • On-chain Data

    On-chain data is the public record of every transaction, balance and contract call — the raw material for wallet tracking and market research.

all dictionary

Related workflows

Turn this into a repeatable process.

  • Smart Money Tracking Workflow

    Build a curated wallet watchlist, monitor it for meaningful trades, and use alerts as research triggers rather than buy signals.

  • AI Crypto Research Workflow

    A repeatable research loop: turn a question into market data, on-chain evidence and a written risk view before any position is considered.

  • AI Token Research Workflow

    Screen a token in under 30 minutes: contract facts, liquidity structure, holder concentration and a written risk verdict.

  • Build An On-chain Alert System

    Assemble a monitoring pipeline that watches addresses, tokens and contracts and delivers deduplicated, contextual alerts.

all workflows

Related tool stacks

The tools that run it in production.

  • Smart Money Stack

    Wallet tracker, on-chain analytics, alert delivery and an AI layer that turns raw wallet events into researchable signals.

  • On-chain Research Stack

    Explorer, indexer and analytics layers combined so wallet and token questions get answered with verifiable data.

all tool stacks

Related prompts

Reusable prompts for this job.

all prompts

Related use cases

How people apply it, and what came out.

  • Find Smart Money Activity

    A research group verified 40 leaderboard wallets and kept only 11, turning a noisy signal source into a usable research queue.

  • Research A Token With AI

    A structured AI research pass cut token screening from three hours to 35 minutes and produced documented passes instead of impulse entries.

  • Create An On-chain Alert System

    A purpose-built alert pipeline with enrichment and deduplication achieved a 30% action rate, versus near-zero for off-the-shelf feeds.

all use cases

Comparisons & alternatives

Pick between the options.

all comparisons