Crypto Risk Analysis Prompt
Runs a pre-mortem on a position or protocol: enumerates failure modes, likelihood, impact and observable early warnings.
/ quick answer
Use before committing capital to a token, protocol or automated strategy. Runs a pre-mortem on a position or protocol: enumerates failure modes, likelihood, impact and observable early warnings.
Run a pre-mortem. Assume the position below lost 90% of its value 12 months from now. Explain how, in order of likelihood. POSITION What: [TOKEN / PROTOCOL / STRATEGY] Size: [% of portfolio] Thesis: [ONE PARAGRAPH] Known facts: [DATA] For each failure mode give: - Mechanism (how the loss actually happens) - Rough likelihood (high / medium / low) with reasoning - Observable early warning signal, and where it would be visible - Whether it is preventable by sizing, monitoring, or not at all Then list: A. The two failure modes worth actively monitoring. B. The monitoring rule for each (metric, threshold, source). C. Whether the stated size is defensible given all of the above. Be blunt. Do not reassure. No financial advice.
1. Emission-driven yield collapses when rewards taper (high): APY composition shifts to under 30% fee-based; visible in the protocol dashboard. Preventable by sizing and exit rule. 2. Admin key compromise (medium): non-timelocked proxy upgrade; visible as an upgrade event. Not preventable, only sized around. Monitor: APY fee share weekly under 30%, and any proxy upgrade event. Stated 12% size is not defensible for a non-timelocked contract.
What does the Crypto Risk Analysis Prompt prompt do?
Use before committing capital to a token, protocol or automated strategy.
Which AI models work with this prompt?
It is model-agnostic: it works with any capable general model. Replace the bracketed variables with your own context before running it.
What output should I expect?
1. Emission-driven yield collapses when rewards taper (high): APY composition shifts to under 30% fee-based; visible in the protocol dashboard. Preventable by sizing and exit rule. 2. Admin key compromise (medium): non-timelocked proxy upgrade; visible as an upgrade event. Not preventable, only size.
/ continue exploring
Related concepts
The vocabulary this page depends on.
- →Crypto Risk Management
Risk management in crypto is position sizing plus custody hygiene: deciding what you can lose per trade and what a single compromise can reach.
- →DeFi
DeFi is financial infrastructure built as open smart contracts — lending, trading, staking and derivatives that anyone can use or compose.
- →DEX
A DEX is an exchange implemented as smart contracts, where trades settle on-chain from your own wallet instead of an internal exchange ledger.
- →Stablecoin
A stablecoin is a token designed to hold a fixed value, usually against the dollar, used as the settlement layer of on-chain activity.
Related workflows
Turn this into a repeatable process.
- →AI Crypto Research Workflow
A repeatable research loop: turn a question into market data, on-chain evidence and a written risk view before any position is considered.
- →DeFi Yield Research Workflow
Evaluate a yield opportunity by decomposing where the return comes from and what has to break for it to disappear.
- →Crypto Portfolio Monitoring
Aggregate positions across wallets and chains, compute real exposure, and alert on drift instead of checking balances manually.
- →Monitor Liquidity
Watch the pools you depend on for exit liquidity, so a position becomes unexitable only in theory, not by surprise.
Related tool stacks
The tools that run it in production.
- →On-chain Research Stack
Explorer, indexer and analytics layers combined so wallet and token questions get answered with verifiable data.
Related prompts
Reusable prompts for this job.
- →Crypto Portfolio Analysis Prompt
Audits a portfolio for hidden concentration, correlated exposure, custody risk and missing exit plans.
- →DeFi Protocol Research Prompt
Decomposes a protocol's yield source, contract risk, oracle dependency and exit path into a written risk verdict.
- →Liquidity Analysis Prompt
Quantifies real exit liquidity for a token: pool depth, provider concentration, lock status and impact at realistic sizes.
- →Crypto Market Analysis Prompt
Produces a structured market brief: regime, liquidity conditions, sector rotation, catalysts and what would change the view.
Related use cases
How people apply it, and what came out.
- →Monitor A Crypto Portfolio
Aggregating six addresses across three chains revealed that a portfolio believed to hold 14 positions actually held one concentrated bet.
- →Discover DeFi Opportunities
Ranking yields by real fee-based return instead of advertised APY moved capital from a 31% headline position to an 8.4% sustainable one.
- →Automate Portfolio Monitoring
A weekly automated snapshot with limit breach alerts replaced manual reconciliation and caught a protocol TVL collapse within hours.
- →Monitor Liquidity
Depth monitoring across 9 positions flagged three tokens as effectively unexitable at their current size, forcing a resize before it mattered.
Comparisons & alternatives
Pick between the options.
- →DeFi vs Traditional Finance
DeFi offers open access, composability and transparent rules; traditional finance offers legal recourse, insurance and stability.
- →Stablecoins vs Bank Transfers
Stablecoin transfers settle in minutes on public rails; bank transfers settle slower but come with reversibility and regulated protection.